Case studies

Maldives: This country is an archipelago consisting of 1190 coral atolls with most of the islands located one meter or less above sea level. The Maldives have become a popular tourist destination, particularly since the construction of an airport on a neighbouring small island. The low elevation of the Maldives archipelago makes them particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, which would cause severe coastal erosion. Depending on the climate predictions, some islands could even be submerged. This threat is exacerbated by the fact that many of the islands have already lost their natural coastal defences - coral reefs - due to local coral mining. An increase in sea level would also increase the dangers of saltwater intrusion, possibly making many islands inhabitable. An increase in temperature linked to climate change could also have devastating consequences for the islands surrounding reefs, increasing the likelihood and severity of bleaching events. 40% of the tourists who visit the islands do so for the diving experience. Thus, climate change could have serious implications for the country's economy who's backbone has until now been tourism: 18% of GDP and more than 60% of the country's foreign exchange receipts comes from recreational activities.

Greece and Turkey: Both countries have well- developed coastlines - with new infrastructure being developed to attract more vacationers - and for both tourism is one of the biggest foreign exchange earners. Climate change's greatest impact in the Mediterranean region is likely to be linked to the increases in temperature, with predicted summer temperature in the upper 40oC. This will not only reduce personal comfort but also lead to increased incidences of heat stress and mortality. As a consequence it is likely that many tourists will be discouraged from visiting the region during the summer month - but might consider a trip earlier or later in the year. Other detrimental impacts include: increase in water scarcity problems and increase in urban pollution, making the eastern Mediterranean a less attractive tourist destination.

Spain: The southern parts of the country are known as some of the most popular destinations for European tourists especially. Climatic changes are likely to lead to an increased resurgence of Malaria, as certain areas become more suitable for certain species of mosquito. Other impacts include flash floods, increased incidences of heat stress and mortality, and increased risk of forest fires. The latter might lead to a large number of reserves and parks being closed to visitors during the summer, thus reducing the attractiveness of the region to tourists.

Scotland: on the other hand should see an improvement in its summer climate in the highlands leading to greater summer confidence for the tourism industry.